2019冠状病毒病疫情导致全球劳动收入大幅下降
日内瓦（国际劳工组织新闻）—— 国际劳工组织在其关于疫情对劳动世界影响的最新评估中称，由2019冠状病毒病疫情引起的惨重的工作时间损失使世界各地的劳动者劳动收入“大幅”下降。
据估计，与2019年同期相比，全球劳动收入在2020年前三个季度下降了10.7%，即3.5万亿美元。该数字不包括政府采取措施提供的收入支持。
降幅最大的是中低收入国家，其劳动收入下降了15.1%；美洲地区受影响最大，下降了12.1%。
《国际劳工组织监测报告第六版：2019冠状病毒病与劳动世界》指出，2020年前9个月全球减少的工作时间“远远高于”上一版《监测报告》（6月30日发布）的预测。
例如，经修订后估算，今年第二季度全球工作时间损失（与2019年第四季度相比）达17.3％，相当于4.95亿个全职工作岗位（按每周工作48 小时计算），而之前的预测为14％，相当于4亿个全职工作岗位。预计2020年第三季度全球工作时间减少12.1％（相当于3.45亿个全职工作岗位）。
自上一版《国际劳工组织监测报告》发布以来，第四季度的前景已大大恶化。 在国际劳工组织设定的基准情境下，预计2020年第四季度全球工作时间损失将达到8.6％（与2019年第四季度相比），相当于2.45亿个全职工作岗位。 这与国际劳工组织先前估计的4.9％或1.4亿个全职工作岗位相比有所增加。
报告称，工作时间损失预估值增加的一个原因是，发展中国家和新兴经济体的劳动者，特别是从事非正规就业的劳动者所受影响比以往危机要大得多。
报告还指出，工作时间的减少更多是由不活跃而非失业导致，这对政策（制定）具有重要影响。
虽然许多严格的工作场所封闭措施有所放松，但各地区之间存在巨大差异。94％的劳动者仍生活在工作场所受到某些限制的国家中；而32%的劳动者生活在除必要的工作场所外，其他工作场所都关闭的国家。
“财政刺激缺口”
第六版《监测报告》还探讨了财政刺激措施在缓解疫情对劳动力市场影响方面的有效性。
在可获得2020年第二季度充足数据的国家中，存在明显的相关性，表明财政刺激措施力度越大（占GDP的百分比），工作时间的损失就越小。 在此期间，全球范围内，如果多增加相当于年度GDP 1%的财政刺激，工作时间的损失将进一步减少0.8％。
然而，尽管财政刺激计划在支持经济活动和减少工时损失方面发挥了重要作用，但它们却集中在高收入国家，因为新兴和发展中经济体为采取此类措施提供资金的能力有限。
为了使发展中国家达到与高收入国家相同的财政刺激与工作时间损失比，他们将需要再投入9820亿美元（低收入国家为450亿美元，中低收入国家为9370亿美元）。低收入国家的财政刺激缺口不到高收入国家宣布的财政刺激方案总额的1%。
考虑到许多发展中国家的社会保护赤字，这一巨大的“财政刺激缺口”更加令人担忧。此外，一些国家还不得不将公共支出从其他用途中转移出来，以减轻危机对劳动力市场的影响。
国际劳工组织总干事盖·莱德表示，“正如我们需要加倍努力抗击疫情一样，我们也需要迅速采取大规模行动，克服其对经济、社会和就业的影响。这包括持续支持就业、企业和收入。”
莱德说：“在联合国大会于纽约召开之际，国际社会迫切需要通过对话、合作与团结，制定一项实现复苏的全球战略。 没有任何一个团体、国家或地区能够独自战胜这场危机。”
如有采访需求，请联系newsroom@ilo.org
EN
COVID-19 leads to massive labour income losses worldwide
GENEVA (ILO News) – The devastating losses in working hours caused by the COVID-19 pandemic have brought a “massive” drop in labour income for workers around the world, says the International Labour Organization (ILO) in its latest assessment of the effects of the pandemic on the world of work.
Global labour income is estimated to have declined by 10.7 per cent, or US$ 3.5 trillion, in the first three quarters of 2020, compared with the same period in 2019. This figure excludes income support provided through government measures.
The biggest drop was in lower-middle income countries, where the labour income losses reached 15.1 per cent, with the Americas the hardest hit region at 12.1 per cent.
The ILO Monitor sixth edition: COVID-19 and the world of work, says that the global working hour losses in the first nine months of 2020 have been “considerably larger” than estimated in the previous edition of the Monitor (issued on 30 June).
For example, the revised estimate of global working time lost in the second quarter (Q2) of this year (when compared to Q4 2019) is for 17.3 per cent, equivalent to 495 million full time equivalent (FTE) jobs (based on a 48-hour working week), whereas the earlier estimate was for 14 per cent, or 400 million FTE jobs. In Q3 of 2020, global working hour losses of 12.1 per cent (345 million FTE jobs) are expected.
The outlook for Q4 has worsened significantly since the last ILO Monitor was issued. Under the ILO’s baseline scenario, global working-hour losses are now projected to amount to 8.6 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2020 (compared to Q4 2019), which corresponds to 245 million FTE jobs. This is an increase from the ILO’s previous estimate of 4.9 percent or 140 million FTE jobs.
One reason for the estimated increases in working-hour losses is that workers in developing and emerging economies, especially those in informal employment, have been much more affected than by past crises, the Monitor says.
It also notes that the drop in working-hour losses is more attributable to inactivity than to unemployment, with important policy implications.
While many stringent workplace closures have been relaxed, there are significant variations between regions. 94 per cent of workers are still in countries with some sort of workplace restrictions, and 32 per cent are in countries with closures for all but essential workplaces.
The “fiscal stimulus gap”
The 6th edition of the Monitor also looks at the effectiveness of fiscal stimulus in alleviating labour market impacts.
In countries where sufficient data is available for Q2 2020, a clear correlation exists, showing that the larger the fiscal stimulus (as a percentage of GDP), the lower the working-hour losses. In that period, globally an additional fiscal stimulus of 1 per cent of annual GDP would have reduced working hour losses by a further 0.8 per cent.
However, while fiscal stimulus packages have played a significant role in supporting economic activity and reducing the fall in working hours, they have been concentrated in high-income countries, as emerging and developing economies have limited capacity to finance such measures.
In order for developing countries to reach the same ratio of stimulus to working hours lost as in high-income countries, they would need to inject a further US$982 billion (US$45 billion in low-income countries and US$937 billion in lower-middle income countries). The stimulus gap for low‑income countries amounts to less than 1 per cent of the total value of the fiscal stimulus packages announced by high-income countries.
This huge “fiscal stimulus gap” is even more worrying in the light of the social protection deficits in many developing countries. Moreover, some of these countries have also had to redirect public spending from other objectives in order to mitigate the labour market impact of the crisis.
“Just as we need to redouble our efforts to beat the virus, so we need to act urgently and at scale to overcome its economic, social and employment impacts. That includes sustaining support for jobs, businesses and incomes,” said ILO Director-General Guy Ryder.
“As the United Nations General Assembly gathers in New York, there is pressing need for the international community to set out a global strategy for recovery through dialogue, cooperation and solidarity. No group, country or region can beat this crisis alone,” he concluded.
For interviews, please contact newsroom@ilo.org
据估计，与2019年同期相比，全球劳动收入在2020年前三个季度下降了10.7%，即3.5万亿美元。该数字不包括政府采取措施提供的收入支持。
降幅最大的是中低收入国家，其劳动收入下降了15.1%；美洲地区受影响最大，下降了12.1%。
《国际劳工组织监测报告第六版：2019冠状病毒病与劳动世界》指出，2020年前9个月全球减少的工作时间“远远高于”上一版《监测报告》（6月30日发布）的预测。
例如，经修订后估算，今年第二季度全球工作时间损失（与2019年第四季度相比）达17.3％，相当于4.95亿个全职工作岗位（按每周工作48 小时计算），而之前的预测为14％，相当于4亿个全职工作岗位。预计2020年第三季度全球工作时间减少12.1％（相当于3.45亿个全职工作岗位）。
自上一版《国际劳工组织监测报告》发布以来，第四季度的前景已大大恶化。 在国际劳工组织设定的基准情境下，预计2020年第四季度全球工作时间损失将达到8.6％（与2019年第四季度相比），相当于2.45亿个全职工作岗位。 这与国际劳工组织先前估计的4.9％或1.4亿个全职工作岗位相比有所增加。
报告称，工作时间损失预估值增加的一个原因是，发展中国家和新兴经济体的劳动者，特别是从事非正规就业的劳动者所受影响比以往危机要大得多。
报告还指出，工作时间的减少更多是由不活跃而非失业导致，这对政策（制定）具有重要影响。
虽然许多严格的工作场所封闭措施有所放松，但各地区之间存在巨大差异。94％的劳动者仍生活在工作场所受到某些限制的国家中；而32%的劳动者生活在除必要的工作场所外，其他工作场所都关闭的国家。
“财政刺激缺口”
第六版《监测报告》还探讨了财政刺激措施在缓解疫情对劳动力市场影响方面的有效性。
在可获得2020年第二季度充足数据的国家中，存在明显的相关性，表明财政刺激措施力度越大（占GDP的百分比），工作时间的损失就越小。 在此期间，全球范围内，如果多增加相当于年度GDP 1%的财政刺激，工作时间的损失将进一步减少0.8％。
然而，尽管财政刺激计划在支持经济活动和减少工时损失方面发挥了重要作用，但它们却集中在高收入国家，因为新兴和发展中经济体为采取此类措施提供资金的能力有限。
为了使发展中国家达到与高收入国家相同的财政刺激与工作时间损失比，他们将需要再投入9820亿美元（低收入国家为450亿美元，中低收入国家为9370亿美元）。低收入国家的财政刺激缺口不到高收入国家宣布的财政刺激方案总额的1%。
考虑到许多发展中国家的社会保护赤字，这一巨大的“财政刺激缺口”更加令人担忧。此外，一些国家还不得不将公共支出从其他用途中转移出来，以减轻危机对劳动力市场的影响。
国际劳工组织总干事盖·莱德表示，“正如我们需要加倍努力抗击疫情一样，我们也需要迅速采取大规模行动，克服其对经济、社会和就业的影响。这包括持续支持就业、企业和收入。”
莱德说：“在联合国大会于纽约召开之际，国际社会迫切需要通过对话、合作与团结，制定一项实现复苏的全球战略。 没有任何一个团体、国家或地区能够独自战胜这场危机。”
如有采访需求，请联系newsroom@ilo.org
EN
COVID-19 leads to massive labour income losses worldwide
GENEVA (ILO News) – The devastating losses in working hours caused by the COVID-19 pandemic have brought a “massive” drop in labour income for workers around the world, says the International Labour Organization (ILO) in its latest assessment of the effects of the pandemic on the world of work.
Global labour income is estimated to have declined by 10.7 per cent, or US$ 3.5 trillion, in the first three quarters of 2020, compared with the same period in 2019. This figure excludes income support provided through government measures.
The biggest drop was in lower-middle income countries, where the labour income losses reached 15.1 per cent, with the Americas the hardest hit region at 12.1 per cent.
The ILO Monitor sixth edition: COVID-19 and the world of work, says that the global working hour losses in the first nine months of 2020 have been “considerably larger” than estimated in the previous edition of the Monitor (issued on 30 June).
For example, the revised estimate of global working time lost in the second quarter (Q2) of this year (when compared to Q4 2019) is for 17.3 per cent, equivalent to 495 million full time equivalent (FTE) jobs (based on a 48-hour working week), whereas the earlier estimate was for 14 per cent, or 400 million FTE jobs. In Q3 of 2020, global working hour losses of 12.1 per cent (345 million FTE jobs) are expected.
The outlook for Q4 has worsened significantly since the last ILO Monitor was issued. Under the ILO’s baseline scenario, global working-hour losses are now projected to amount to 8.6 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2020 (compared to Q4 2019), which corresponds to 245 million FTE jobs. This is an increase from the ILO’s previous estimate of 4.9 percent or 140 million FTE jobs.
One reason for the estimated increases in working-hour losses is that workers in developing and emerging economies, especially those in informal employment, have been much more affected than by past crises, the Monitor says.
It also notes that the drop in working-hour losses is more attributable to inactivity than to unemployment, with important policy implications.
While many stringent workplace closures have been relaxed, there are significant variations between regions. 94 per cent of workers are still in countries with some sort of workplace restrictions, and 32 per cent are in countries with closures for all but essential workplaces.
The “fiscal stimulus gap”
The 6th edition of the Monitor also looks at the effectiveness of fiscal stimulus in alleviating labour market impacts.
In countries where sufficient data is available for Q2 2020, a clear correlation exists, showing that the larger the fiscal stimulus (as a percentage of GDP), the lower the working-hour losses. In that period, globally an additional fiscal stimulus of 1 per cent of annual GDP would have reduced working hour losses by a further 0.8 per cent.
However, while fiscal stimulus packages have played a significant role in supporting economic activity and reducing the fall in working hours, they have been concentrated in high-income countries, as emerging and developing economies have limited capacity to finance such measures.
In order for developing countries to reach the same ratio of stimulus to working hours lost as in high-income countries, they would need to inject a further US$982 billion (US$45 billion in low-income countries and US$937 billion in lower-middle income countries). The stimulus gap for low‑income countries amounts to less than 1 per cent of the total value of the fiscal stimulus packages announced by high-income countries.
This huge “fiscal stimulus gap” is even more worrying in the light of the social protection deficits in many developing countries. Moreover, some of these countries have also had to redirect public spending from other objectives in order to mitigate the labour market impact of the crisis.
“Just as we need to redouble our efforts to beat the virus, so we need to act urgently and at scale to overcome its economic, social and employment impacts. That includes sustaining support for jobs, businesses and incomes,” said ILO Director-General Guy Ryder.
“As the United Nations General Assembly gathers in New York, there is pressing need for the international community to set out a global strategy for recovery through dialogue, cooperation and solidarity. No group, country or region can beat this crisis alone,” he concluded.
For interviews, please contact newsroom@ilo.org